DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/22 11:19
All Grains Higher at Midday
Trade is higher across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 75. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are
higher with crude up 0.45. Livestock trade is mostly higher led by cattle.
Precious metals are higher with gold $6.20 higher.
Corn trade is 4 cents higher at midday with trade testing nearby resistance
with follow-through buying after the strong finish last week. Soggy conditions
for much of the belt are viewed as friendly to the market concerns about the
start of the growing season. Ethanol margins mixed with the energy complex
firming along with the corn with ethanol futures slightly higher this morning.
Basis has remained steady to firm in the recent days. The weekly crop progress
is expected to show planting near average, with emergence remaining below
average, with current conditions in the "I" states remaining below normal. The
weekly export inspections were good at 1.14 million metric tons of corn which
has added support. On the July chart support is at $3.69, the 20-day then the
$3.61 4-month low. Resistance is at the $3.74 100-day which we are above at
midday, then the May high at $3.79.
Soybean trade is 6 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find
light buying after the hard selloff last week tied to Brazilian issues. Meal is
$1 to $2 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. The Brazilian currency
trade has calmed down, and retraced much of the losses, but the wave of bushels
dumped must be digested, with real off slightly this so far today. US basis
should stay steady for the moment with slower movement. The weekly crop
progress is expected to show planting near normal with emergence slightly
behind normal. The weekly export inspections were normal seasonally at 348,535
metric tons. Spillover support from corn and support from the wet weather is
the main news that appears to have market bears gun-shy at midday. July beans
have support at the longer term low of $9.40, with the weekly low of $9.42 just
above that, with resistance at 10-day moving average of $9.64.
Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher across the three contracts with wet
conditions raising quality concerns, along with early harvest expanding in the
south this week and the weaker dollar. Early harvest has been lower yields and
protein than expected so far but we still a little ways from the broader
opening of harvest. The dollar is back to the lowest levels since the election
with trade just below 97 on the index. Crop progress is expected to show steady
to lower conditions, with maturity above normal, while spring wheat planting
and emergence remains close to normal. Weekly export inspections were ok at
674,559 metric tons. On the July KC contract support is the 10-day at $4.34
with 50-day at 4.39 resistance, which are above at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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