DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/22 11:24
Beans Under Light Pressure
Beans are under light pressure at midday challenging the one-month lows.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are sharply lower at midday with DOW futures
down 425 points. Interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is six
points higher. Energies are lower with crude down $.70. Livestock trade is
mixed with cattle higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7.60.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday. Trade is continuing to chop around
the lower end of the range, with early buying enthusiasm drying up quickly.
Ethanol futures have stabilized after drifting lower early in the week;
producer margins remain solid. Double crop areas in Brazil look to build some
moisture in the coming days, with early harvest expanding in Argentina. The
daily wire has been quiet Thursday with the government closing for the
snowstorm. The weekly export sales expectations range from 1.75-to-2.25 million
metric ton with the official release delayed until Friday. On the May chart, we
slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, which is now resistance. The
50-day at $3.73 1/2 is support.
Soybean trade is 3-to-7 cents lower at midday with early gains fading again
as trade concerns weighing down the market. Meal is $1.00-to-$2.00 higher and
oil is 50-to-60 points lower. The weather pattern looks to return to some
near-term dryness for much of South America with rains for much of the eastern
belt incoming for the U.S., as southern planting is off to a slow start. Crush
margins have improved with meal regaining forward momentum, with a close over
$370 a ton likely needed to extend momentum. The export wire has been quiet
with business shifting seasonally to Brazil. Weekly export sales are expected
to be in the 250,000-to-500,000 metric ton range. On the May contract, support
is the 50-day at $10.20 with resistance at the 20-day at $10.49.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to 5 cents higher with trade bouncing back on
oversold conditions and longer-term weather uncertainty, while trade
uncertainty has slowed earlier gains. The coming week looks drier again, but
growth should be boosted in the short-term for many areas with better rains
potentially out there in the 8-to-10 day range. The dollar index remains below
90 on the index, which should support trade. Black Sea origin prices have been
more sideways, but the U.S. remains disadvantaged on the world market. Weekly
export sales are expected to remain soft at 150,000-to-350,000 metric tons. May
KC wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65, the 50-day is at $4.85.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser. He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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